A recent report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has raised concerns about the Kremlin’s efforts to destabilise Moldova by leveraging pro-Russian figures within the country.

The ISW suggests that Russia aims to prevent Moldova from joining the European Union and may justify future hybrid or conventional operations against Moldova.

The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Eugenia Gutsul, hinted at Romanian officials’ control over the Moldovan government. This assertion is part of the Kremlin’s ongoing attempts to cast doubt on the sovereignty of European pro-Western governments.

Gutsul’s remarks, made during an interview on Russia’s state-owned channel “Pervy Kanal,” suggested that Moldova is not a sovereign state and implied Romanian control over its government.

Gutsul further warned that if Gagauzia initiates the process of secession from Moldova, both the Moldovan government in Chisinau and Bucharest, Romania, would respond.

She claimed that Moldova’s unification with Romania would spell “death” for Moldova, its language, and culture.

Military analysts speculate that Gutsul’s interview on Russian state television, likely aimed at justifying potential future Russian aggression against Moldova, particularly resonates with Russian-speaking and pro-Russian audiences in Gagauzia, the pro-Russian separatist republic of Transnistria, other pro-Russian regions in Europe and Central Asia, as well as within Russia itself.

The Kremlin likely views its efforts in Moldova as part of a broader geopolitical conflict with the West.

This strategy mirrors previous Kremlin disinformation campaigns, such as those aimed at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty by spreading false claims about NATO’s control over Ukraine.

The Kremlin is likely to continue asserting that various target states lack full sovereignty to create informational conditions favourable for Russian hybrid or conventional operations against them.

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