The Prime Minister will argue that meeting this 2% commitment – which must be a floor not a ceiling – is crucial to NATO’s ongoing ability to deter and defend against the kind of tactics Putin has used in Ukraine.

Evidence suggests European NATO members are increasing defence spending.

• Sixteen NATO members (over half the Alliance) increased their defence spending in 2022 relative to 2021 in current US dollars. This was after significant increases in European defense spending in 2021. Europe was an exception to the global norm here, as global military spending declined by roughly 2 percent in 2021 and 2022, according to The Military Balance.
• In 2022, twelve NATO members increased their defence spending as a percentage of GDP. For example, Lithuania increased its defense spending from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion (in current US dollars) and as a percentage of GDP from 2.07 percent to 2.34 percent. Given the aforementioned economic headwinds and other budgetary demands (such as pandemic expenditures and economic stimulus), increasing defence spending as a percentage of GDP was extremely challenging in fiscal and political terms. For example, the United States increased defence spending from $759 billion in 2021 to $766 billion in 2022, but defence spending as a percentage of GDP declined from 3.3 percent in 2021 to 3.06 percent in 2022.
• An additional seven NATO governments have pledged to raise defence spending as a percentage of GDP in the near term: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Romania. For example, in March 2022, Latvia’s cabinet approved an increase in defence spending from 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2025.